For people in the business world, that is not a rhetorical question. It is one that I contemplate more and more as I approach the release of my next novel.
For a goal-oriented person like me, the world sometimes revolves around tracking what I do and measuring the results. Tracking my activity is relatively simple. So what have I done to insure success of the new novel? I got a manuscript professionally proofread, edited and formatted. I added dedications to my favorite booksellers and a formal invitation to book clubs. I pored over the galleys. I’ve ordered bookmarks, coasters, print ads, post cards, and a mailing list to send those post cards to. I’ve requested blurbs from half a dozen writers whom I respect. Three have already blessed me with wonderful words. I’m poised to send off review copies to an extensive list of reviewers.
But how will I measure success? What line do I cross that tells me my book is a hit?
In our business, the Holy Grail is writing a best seller. Yet, that status does not come with a pre-determined sales point. Not only is this a relative scale, but it is transitory. Getting on someone’s bestseller list merely means that you did better than everyone else THAT WEEK. If the economy is bad enough, that could mean you sold 20 when everyone else sold 19. No book bestseller lists put numbers next to them, like box office figures for top movies, not even in industry publications like Publisher's Weekly. And the fact that different lists have different titles is a pretty good indication that they don’t reflect actual sales anyway.
Even if you have access to sales numbers, there are two sales numbers that can be used: the number of books that are bought by stores through distributors and the number of books actually sold to consumers. The latter is tracked by BookScan, but I don’t know how even publishers get those numbers.
After some digging I learned that I can at least find out how many books shipped through Ingram, the distributor that handles all my books. They have an automated system you can call (615-213-6803 - you’re welcome.) Punch in the ISBN number and the computer will tell you how many copies sold this year. But that number won’t answer my REAL question. How many books do I have to sell before I declare the book a success?
A November 2005 article in Fast Company Magazine stated that the average number of copies sold of a book is 11,800. That is, they said, the average author who manages to find an agent and land a deal. That leaves out a lot of my competition.
Bill Frank, of One2One Direct stated that the average book sells 7500 copies, including million-sellers and flops.
ParaPublishing.com quoted the Authors Guild as saying that a successful fiction book sells 5,000 copies.
My favorite so far is a July 2007 article called “THE 10 AWFUL TRUTHS ABOUT BOOK PUBLISHING” by Steven Piersanti, President of Berrett-Koehler Publishers. He quotes statistics published in Publishers Weekly, July 17, 2006.
“In 2004, 950,000 titles out of the 1.2 million tracked by Nielsen BookScan sold fewer than 99 copies. Another 200,000 sold fewer than 1,000 copies. Only 25,000 sold more than 5,000 copies. The average book in America sells about 500 copies”
Presumably the average in this case is the mean, distorted by the Stephen Kings of the world who sell millions. The other numbers seem more useful. So let’s see...
According to this data, when sales hit 100 my novel will have outperformed 79 percent of its fellow releases. When we pass 500 we’re already above average. At 1,000 copies it’s in the 96th percentile. When we hit 5,000 copies (he said optimistically) the book is in the top 2 percent sales-wise. At that point a paperback would have earned a $3,000 advance. I guess we can call that the line for success.
I’ll keep you posted.
Showing posts with label Authors Guild. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Authors Guild. Show all posts
Sunday, February 1, 2009
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Who's looking out for you?
A couple days ago I receive two interesting e-mails within minutes of each other from the two sides of a lawsuit that should be important to every author on the planet. The fact that I know some of the people involved made it even more meaningful to me.
Not long ago, Google struck deals with major university libraries to scan and copy millions of books in their collections. Many of these were older books in the public domain, but millions of others were still under copyright protection. The Author’s Guild saw Google’s scanning as, in their words, “a plain and brazen violation of copyright law.” Google countered that its digitizing of these books represented a “fair use” of the material. The Guild decided that a lawsuit was the path to a sound resolution. As it happens, Joseph Goulden and Paul Dickson were named plaintiffs in that suit. I know them because they are both founders of American Independent Writers (formerly the Washington Independent Writers,) an organization of which I am proud to be a member.
Just days ago, Google and the plaintiffs announced a settlement agreement. This settlement, according to Google, opens new opportunities for authors, publishers, libraries, Google and readers. You can learn more about the settlement at the settlement site But since it’s still awaiting Court approval, the principles can’t talk much about it. However, the bottom line is that Google cannot continue to scan copyrighted material without permission and royalties. One could make a case that if the Guild had lost this suit, the essential nature of copyright would have been at risk.
As it is, if you have books under the Google Book Search Partner Program nothing changes except that you will be entitled to benefits under the settlement, if and when it is approved by the Court. The settlement includes at least $45 million for authors and publishers whose in-copyright books and other copyrighted texts have been scanned without permission. If your book was scanned and you own all the rights, you’ll get a small share of this, at least $60. Those authors will also get paid for institutional subscriptions to the collection of books made available through Google Book Search, sales of online consumer access to the books, and printouts at public libraries.
What’s the lesson of this lawsuit and its outcome? I don’t think it is that Google is a bad company. I like the Google Book Search concept and they’re in business to make money. I think the real lesson is how important it is for writers to support the organizations that lobby for our rights, organizations like the Author’s Guild and American Independent Writers. These groups, made up of authors, are the only entities looking out for us.
Not long ago, Google struck deals with major university libraries to scan and copy millions of books in their collections. Many of these were older books in the public domain, but millions of others were still under copyright protection. The Author’s Guild saw Google’s scanning as, in their words, “a plain and brazen violation of copyright law.” Google countered that its digitizing of these books represented a “fair use” of the material. The Guild decided that a lawsuit was the path to a sound resolution. As it happens, Joseph Goulden and Paul Dickson were named plaintiffs in that suit. I know them because they are both founders of American Independent Writers (formerly the Washington Independent Writers,) an organization of which I am proud to be a member.
Just days ago, Google and the plaintiffs announced a settlement agreement. This settlement, according to Google, opens new opportunities for authors, publishers, libraries, Google and readers. You can learn more about the settlement at the settlement site But since it’s still awaiting Court approval, the principles can’t talk much about it. However, the bottom line is that Google cannot continue to scan copyrighted material without permission and royalties. One could make a case that if the Guild had lost this suit, the essential nature of copyright would have been at risk.
As it is, if you have books under the Google Book Search Partner Program nothing changes except that you will be entitled to benefits under the settlement, if and when it is approved by the Court. The settlement includes at least $45 million for authors and publishers whose in-copyright books and other copyrighted texts have been scanned without permission. If your book was scanned and you own all the rights, you’ll get a small share of this, at least $60. Those authors will also get paid for institutional subscriptions to the collection of books made available through Google Book Search, sales of online consumer access to the books, and printouts at public libraries.
What’s the lesson of this lawsuit and its outcome? I don’t think it is that Google is a bad company. I like the Google Book Search concept and they’re in business to make money. I think the real lesson is how important it is for writers to support the organizations that lobby for our rights, organizations like the Author’s Guild and American Independent Writers. These groups, made up of authors, are the only entities looking out for us.
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