How am I doing?

For people in the business world, that is not a rhetorical question. It is one that I contemplate more and more as I approach the release of my next novel.

For a goal-oriented person like me, the world sometimes revolves around tracking what I do and measuring the results. Tracking my activity is relatively simple. So what have I done to insure success of the new novel? I got a manuscript professionally proofread, edited and formatted. I added dedications to my favorite booksellers and a formal invitation to book clubs. I pored over the galleys. I’ve ordered bookmarks, coasters, print ads, post cards, and a mailing list to send those post cards to. I’ve requested blurbs from half a dozen writers whom I respect. Three have already blessed me with wonderful words. I’m poised to send off review copies to an extensive list of reviewers.

But how will I measure success? What line do I cross that tells me my book is a hit?

In our business, the Holy Grail is writing a best seller. Yet, that status does not come with a pre-determined sales point. Not only is this a relative scale, but it is transitory. Getting on someone’s bestseller list merely means that you did better than everyone else THAT WEEK. If the economy is bad enough, that could mean you sold 20 when everyone else sold 19. No book bestseller lists put numbers next to them, like box office figures for top movies, not even in industry publications like Publisher's Weekly. And the fact that different lists have different titles is a pretty good indication that they don’t reflect actual sales anyway.

Even if you have access to sales numbers, there are two sales numbers that can be used: the number of books that are bought by stores through distributors and the number of books actually sold to consumers. The latter is tracked by BookScan, but I don’t know how even publishers get those numbers.

After some digging I learned that I can at least find out how many books shipped through Ingram, the distributor that handles all my books. They have an automated system you can call (615-213-6803 - you’re welcome.) Punch in the ISBN number and the computer will tell you how many copies sold this year. But that number won’t answer my REAL question. How many books do I have to sell before I declare the book a success?

A November 2005 article in Fast Company Magazine stated that the average number of copies sold of a book is 11,800. That is, they said, the average author who manages to find an agent and land a deal. That leaves out a lot of my competition.

Bill Frank, of One2One Direct stated that the average book sells 7500 copies, including million-sellers and flops.

ParaPublishing.com quoted the Authors Guild as saying that a successful fiction book sells 5,000 copies.

My favorite so far is a July 2007 article called “THE 10 AWFUL TRUTHS ABOUT BOOK PUBLISHING” by Steven Piersanti, President of Berrett-Koehler Publishers. He quotes statistics published in Publishers Weekly, July 17, 2006.

“In 2004, 950,000 titles out of the 1.2 million tracked by Nielsen BookScan sold fewer than 99 copies. Another 200,000 sold fewer than 1,000 copies. Only 25,000 sold more than 5,000 copies. The average book in America sells about 500 copies”

Presumably the average in this case is the mean, distorted by the Stephen Kings of the world who sell millions. The other numbers seem more useful. So let’s see...

According to this data, when sales hit 100 my novel will have outperformed 79 percent of its fellow releases. When we pass 500 we’re already above average. At 1,000 copies it’s in the 96th percentile. When we hit 5,000 copies (he said optimistically) the book is in the top 2 percent sales-wise. At that point a paperback would have earned a $3,000 advance. I guess we can call that the line for success.

I’ll keep you posted.